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Our modelling approach not only includes current users but also previous and future users. Most data available for the model is based on current users, and thus relevant for the specific dates of the recorded data. To be more precise, we do not have information about the past or future exposure of a user, but instead assume that the average exposure of a current user is representative for the previous or future use. The reason for this is that the age of an individual at the time of death may be unknown, and therefore the age at exposure would not be known either. Therefore, we assumed that the distribution of the incidence of death for a drug remains the same throughout time. In the model, we did assume that the number of deaths is stable throughout time. This may seem counterintuitive because a decline in the population in a specific age group would lead to a lower incidence of death in this group, which should lead to a decrease in the number of deaths. However, this is not what we observe. For some drugs, such as methanol, the number of deaths may increase due to other health problems, such as accidents. This leads to an overestimation of the risk to the user, which is why an estimate for the total number of deaths was not used in the modelling.
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Next week we'll be revealing a new set of mods for Destiny 2 which are yet to be announced. It's time to cover off the most exciting part of any Destiny 2 update, the Mod World Update.
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